March Madness Sunday Bets: Texas Tech, Tennessee

The Tennessee Volunteers are coming off a dominant win in the first round against Miami (OH). The Virginia Cavaliers struggled against Wright State, but they found drastically more success to end the game. Counter-intuitively, this is a game where I’m willing to buy high on Tennessee anyway.

The Volunteers feature an elite defense at defending the arc, but they also force their opponents to shoot a ton of threes. That’s where the Cavaliers want their shots to come from, regardless, but I’m not entirely sold they’re going to be able to deal with the physicality of Tennessee. I don’t believe it’ll look identical to the Miami (OH) game, but there should be an edge for the Volunteers.

The other aspect is that they are a physical defense who will put their opponents on the line. Virginia isn’t a strong offense, and they struggle at drawing fouls. They’ve also struggled with free throws when they do get to the line.

On the other side, the Cavaliers will also put their opponents on the line. Granted, Tennessee isn’t a good free-throw shooting team, but they can draw fouls. I expect them to continue to attack this Virginia defense, which could get a few of their key players into foul trouble.

Ultimately, I expect the physicality of Tennessee to get Virginia into trouble in this game. They were saved by shooting 50% from deep against Wright State, and that isn’t something that will happen against Tennessee.

Where to Bet: Tennessee moneyline | -115 at Caesars Sportsbook

The Texas Tech Red Raiders and Alabama Crimson Tide are nearly identical. They both run their opponents off the three-point line, forcing them into twos without fouling. They also both shoot threes at two of the highest rates in the NCAA.

There’s one major difference between these two teams. Texas Tech is good at defending the three-point line when shots are taken, while Alabama isn’t. I still expect both teams to let it fly from deep, but the Red Raiders should find more success defending those shots.

Both of these teams have players who can attack the basket and open the floor. Texas Tech is a team willing to expand the floor and consistently shoot deep threes, though. It’s a difficult shot for any team to defend, and it’s become a major part of their offense.

This game should come down to which team can consistently hit more threes, and I slightly prefer the Texas Tech shooters with Aden Holloway out.

Where to Bet: Texas Tech moneyline | -110 at FanDuel Sportsbook

2025-26 CBB Season Betting Record: 5-8